GM
Eco rotation szn? Over.
Shorting bridge tokens? No.
L2 szn. 90% complete for 2022.
Merge szn? Merged.
What’s next?
Narratives yet to play out:
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StarkNet mainnet launch (Privacy)
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Aave’s GHO steblekoin
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Curve’s crvUSD steblekoin
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Synthetix V3
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dYdX (V4) chain
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Cosmos (ATOM) 2.0
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zkSync mainnet launch (Privacy)
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???
Mind Dumping
We’re used to the PvP environment that is now crypto, for the time being, especially on-chain. I suspect this will get even worse as markets cool off, I find myself thinking about narratives from time to time, and how they’ve shortened in terms of their effect as the market has been down-only for the past few months.
I ran into this issue in late 2021. Most would call it “burnout”, but it didn’t feel like burnout. It was purely information overload, signal/noise ratio was extremely low. Looking back on previous research reports, trade ideas, ecosystem spread sheets to keep track of anything/everything happening anywhere/everywhere, etc…
With the rise of new verticals despite the damage we all took this year, in some way, shape, or form, I couldn’t be more excited to run it back turbo.
From DeFi summer, to now, we’ve seen incredible progress with the development and launch of various L2’s, not even factoring in the development that Ethereum mainnet has seen, including the Merge this past week, that so far, has gone off without a hitch. The 2 I’m particularly excited about in the coming months going into the end of the year are zkSync, and StarkNet. Privacy has been on my radar for quite some time now and I’m fascinated every time I’m in talks with teams regarding what privacy functions are possible with the emerging technology at the base level, not just the dApp level. As we saw recently, with the OFAC sanction of Tornado Cash, and how many hops away the average user/protocol is from an address that interacted with Tornado is particularly alarming, when considering potential regulations around privacy in the future. Despite this, I believe the race to full privacy has only sped up after this event unfolded.
We’re inching closer to a system that is reminiscent of a dystopian, digital world, but I believe that as more energy starts to move on-chain (financial, social, mental, etc), so will the systems that allow us to maintain even the most basic forms of privacy, such as:
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Which dApps a wallet interacts with
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What balance a wallet has
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What trades a wallet has made
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Where a wallets funds came from
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Where a wallet funds go to
This level of privacy comes with its tradeoffs, like tracking malicious users much more difficult than it is today. However, I feel like most will start to prefer this if tighter regulations were to be enforced which would squeeze users to have to operate privately, if they want exposure to the most crypto native activities. All crypto technology has lived on the cutting edge at some point, before becoming a norm of any kind. Total and complete privacy (with the ability to be compliant, should one choose, via viewing keys as an example) is currently cutting edge.
As a researcher, it is +EV to keep as open of a mind as possible, but retention of the ability to develop deep conviction in a thesis is crucial. My view, is that the privacy narrative is one that has yet to play out its full course, as it would require an existential threat to the industry greater than the ones that even remotely exists today.
To put it in a nutshell, this time is extremely exciting despite the fact that macro conditions are absolutely shit, with more pain to come on that front. On the other hand, this is a builders paradise.
More mind dumps coming soon.
Disclaimooor
This is me channeling my thoughts in written pieces that may summarize current market thoughts but will never be to endorse any project, or method mentioned nor give any financial advice. Blz do not fomo into anything you may read from myself or any anon(s) or pseudoanon(s). I also may or may not hold any of the tokens mentioned and/or contribute to any protocols/DAOs mentioned. Stay safe.
WAGMI,
0xOmnia